In January 2009, I looked into an article in the Orlando Sentinel:

If you read yesterday’s Sentinel, you would have found this headline: “National survey ranks Orlando 4th most popular city in U.S.”

Read the report and you find only 34% stated they would like to live in Orlando. You have to ask why the Sentinel is so happy with a report that also states 65%(1) of those surveyed would not like to live in Orlando. — 65% Surveyed Rather NOT Live in Orlando

You can read the rest at your leisure. The gist was..there are numerous ways to look at studies and the numbers they spit out. Well, another study has hit closer to home. Yesterday, TBO.com reported “Lakeland makes blog’s ‘least educated’ cities list”(1)

Let’s look behind the headline.

Lakeland, which boasts such institutions of higher learning as the more than century-old Florida Southern College, has garnered a spot on an online blog’s list of the nation’s least educated cities.

The Huffington Post’s ranking was based on the percentage of residents who are at least 25 and hold four-year college degrees. The ranking was based on Brookings Institution research.

Was TBO reporting on research performed by a lowly blog? It was more insidious, they were reporting on what the Huffington Post found. No, the “blog” was merely reporting research from the Brookings Institution. Evidently, TBO.com found the Huffington Post, er, post, more interesting that the original data.

The chase is on. Let’s spend five minutes and go to the source. It’s very easy to do. The Brookings Institute not only publishes informative summaries, but they offer interactive data maps and the data in easily downloaded files. You can check my numbers when I’m finished.

Bear with me for three points before we get to the numbers. First, note where the Brookings Institute gets their raw data: “Source: Brookings Institution analysis of Census 2000, U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program, and 2008 American Community Survey data”

Second, the ACS is a Bureau of the Census sampling initiative. Basically, they send a questionnaire to a sub-set of the population and extrapolate information. It’s both a science and an art.

Finally, each time TBO.com mentioned “Lakeland” they were wrong. They reported the Brookings Institution numbers for the the “Lakeland-Winter Haven Metropolitan Area.” That’s a construct of the Bureau of the Census. It’s basically all of Polk County. It’s the 87th largest Metro Area tracked by the Bureau with 580,594 residents as of 2009. You can find it on a map if you like.

That’s an important point. “Lakeland” alone didn’t make the list. Lakeland, Winter Haven, Bartow, Polk City, and a lot of small towns, suburbs and rural areas made the list. In many cases, Brookings went to a bit of trouble to show how residents of the cities and suburbs attained different levels of education.

So, we know where we stand? 2000 Census numbers that included “everyone,” a 2008 ACS sample, and different results by place of residence. Given that, what was the real news?

Yes, looking at the full Lakeland-Winter Haven Metro Area, the percentage of population age 25 and over with Bachelor’s Degree in the is 18.7. Yes, that’s 96th in the top 100 (by size) of American Metro Areas.

However, if you look at the primary city (Lakeland) the number of residents with a Bachelor’s Degree and above is 24.3%. That moves Lakeland up the top 100 list to 66th. Certainly not the top ten we’d like to see, but also no where near a news flash bottom five.

Is the Lakeland-Winter Haven Metro Area in the “least educated” basement? If by “educated,” you only consider Bachelor’s Degrees and above, it doesn’t fare well. Residents of just the city of Lakeland rank a bit higher. Let’s call it the ground floor. (2)

(Listing Bachelor Degree’s and above by state puts Florida 28th with 25.8%. Make Lakeland a state and it would be tied with Iowa at 37.)

But that’s not the story in the data. This is…

The Brookings Institute summarized the results of their data sifting. Here was one point they made:

All 100 of the largest metro areas experienced an increase in the share of their young adults enrolled in higher education between 2000 and 2008. Some of the largest increases occurred in older industrial metro areas of the Northeast and Midwest, suggesting that young people in these struggling economies increasingly recognize the need for a post-secondary degree to succeed in the labor market.

In 2000, 21.8% of Lakeland-Winter Haven Metro Area residents 18 to 24 were enrolled in college. In 2008, that number rose slightly to 26.2% and still finished dead last in the nation’s top 100 metro areas.

Why aren’t our students going to college?

(1) I doubt the “Huffington Post” staff would mind it being called “a blog.” but the headline short-shrifts the site. The Post easily has as much journalistic integrity as TBO.com. I doubt they’d call themselves a blog.

(2) If you list Associate’s Degrees and above, the Lakeland Metro Area is 64th. The City of Lakeland is 14th. Just .2% behind Orlando and Tampa-Clearwater-St. Pete.

If you list “Some College and above” then the Lakeland Metro Area is 58th. Just .1% behind Tampa and ahead of Orlando.

Considering High School Diploma and above; at 87.3%, Lakeland finishes 20th in the Top 100

(3) On a side note: 16.2% of the Lakeland-Winter Haven Metro residents with Bachelor Degrees or above are unemployed. High School diploma or less: 34% are unemployed.

photo credit: Tom Hagerty for Lakeland Local

Do the Math

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As you’ll see, Bob says I’m “incorrect” and “not telling the whole truth.” Here are the key parts of his comment:

Your statements about our compensation for the sale of 61 miles of our A Line are incorrect. The correct amount is $432 million, of which we are reinvesting the entire amount in Florida’s freight infrastructure. This reinvestment will improve our ability to deliver freight to Florida businesses and consumers. (FYI – the new issue of Florida Trend has an important article about how Florida stands to prosper from changing global trade flows: http://floridatrend.com/article.asp?aID=52533)

As for Massachusetts, the $100 million was only a portion of the transaction – so you are not telling the whole truth.

I would be happy to meet with you again at Black & Brew to discuss freight issues and how we will play an important role in the economic recovery of our home state. And as I’ve mentioned to Julie, I would be willing to speak at a DLP meeting or to any other community group in Lakeland.

OK, the first part of that is silly, and Bob knows it. He’s a pretty nice guy, and really, it’s beneath him. Here’s what I actually wrote:

With the Florida CSX deal, the state is paying CSX about $600-$700 million overall in cash and Florida freight system improvements for ownership of 61 miles of lines through the Orlando area. (It’s about $450 million if you don’t count the money for overpass construction in north central Florida, which I suppose one could say isn’t directly for CSX’s benefit, even though it is.) Remember, that money includes $23 million for “relocation” of the Taft rail yard to the Winter Haven rail yard.

I even accounted for the fact that CSX doesn’t include the overpass improvements in the cost of the deal, even though the state always did. In most dialects of English, “about 450″ would equate pretty closely to “432.” However, I fully stipulate that “432″ is a more precise figure than “about 450,” which is why I used “about.” Sigh.

Now, moving on to Massachusetts. That state and CSX refer to their deal as a $100 million deal for purchase of tracks between Worcester and Framingham and for some additional track around Boston. There is some additional bridge-building work, which sounds a lot like overpass work, that sounds like it might be outside the scope of the $100 million. The total mileage purchased appears to be 53 miles, not just the 23 I cited in my original post.

A source I trust who knows rail very well puts the total, counting the bridge/overpass work at $125 million. But I can’t independently verify that figure.

By contrast, Florida has a $649 million plan, counting overpasses, to purchase 61 miles.

So let’s put those next to each other:
Florida: $649 million, 61 miles, $10.6 million per mile
Mass: $125 million, 53 miles, $2.3 million per mile

I think those numbers speak for themselves. But if Bob O’Malley wants to provide better numbers, which he can reasonably document, I’ll happily recalculate.

I also recommend the Florida Trend article that Bob referenced that my friend Cynthia Barnett wrote. I actually see it as a pretty good anatomy of a shipping construction bubble in the making. But I guess we’ll all see.

And as far as meeting in Black and Brew again, I certainly enjoyed that conversation. And I’d welcome the chance to hang out socially with Bob and Lisa. Like I said, he’s a nice guy. However, I think these types of discussions best occur in public where others can judge them.

Editor’s note: Billy Townsend is currently navigating winding roads outside of Lakeland. The column above was delivered to Lakeland Local on February 27th.

photo credit: JohnGreyTurner

Tales of Two Bobs, Part 2: Then Give Me a Number on CSX/Mass., Bob O’M.

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$100 MILLION EXPANSION: CSX TO DOUBLE ITS FREIGHT YARD IN WORCESTER

WORCESTER — CSX Corp. plans to more than double the size of its freight yard on Franklin Street and make the city its new freight hub for New England.

The $100 million project is part of a private-public partnership between the state and CSX to reposition its freight operations in Massachusetts, so the rail line between Worcester and Boston can be opened up to more commuter trains, with a goal of eventually reaching 20 to 25 commuter trains per day, according to Lt. Gov. Timothy P. Murray.

Sound familiar?

Well, let’s check out the terms of Massachusetts’ version of the CSX/Sunrail deal and consider the difference between a how a state governed by liberals and a state governed by conservatives deals with corporations and the public interest.

With the Florida CSX deal, the state is paying CSX about $600-$700 million overall in cash and Florida freight system improvements for ownership of 61 miles of lines through the Orlando area. (It’s about $450 million if you don’t count the money for overpass construction in north central Florida, which I suppose one could say isn’t directly for CSX’s benefit, even though it is.) Remember, that money includes $23 million for “relocation” of the Taft rail yard to the Winter Haven rail yard.

Jamey L. Tesler, deputy secretary for the state Department of Transportation, said no state or city funding will be used to finance the [Worcester] expansion project. He said CSX will pay the entire bill for the project from money it will receive from the state for the purchase of the property rights of the Boston-to-Worcester rail line and the New Bedford-to-Fall River line.

That’s no money as in no money. As in no taxpayer sops to whatever spoiled, bullying inheritance baby’s buddies assemble land near the hub in Worcester.

Well, surely CSX stuck it to those silly leftists in the deal for the Worcester-to-Boston tracks. I bet they way overpaid compared to what Jeb and Marco and John Mica were able to negotiate. Well, maybe not so much. Massachusetts bought 23 miles of rail line between Framingham and Worcester and some additional Boston-area trackage I can’t find mileage for. Mass also paid for some overpass improvements, just like Florida did. However, the total Massachusetts package came to $100 million. Absolute worst case for Massachusetts, that’s $4.3 million per mile, and it certainly would be less than that if I knew the Boston mileage. And Massachusetts citizens sound like they get a truly useful extension of one of America’s best established rail/transit systems.

By contrast, our fair state paid about $10.6 million per mile to purchase track for a startup service projected to carry 3,000 people per day. That’s more than twice what those free spending Kennedy-lovers paid for a much better product.

So here’s my question to Bob O’Malley, the CSX flack who on occasion reads and comments on Lakeland Local: Do you guys give seminars? Because I would love to learn your negotiating technique. And, when you hear Marco Rubio – speaker of the Florida House and major CSX supporter when all of this went down – splatter on about conservatism and spending and who does and does not hug Obama’s stimulus package, do you cackle to yourself?

Hell, maybe Rubio put it all on his party credit card.

At least CSX was honest about the job picture in Worcester.

He said the project is expected to create 370 construction jobs, and 50 jobs once the freight terminal is completed, which is projected to be in September 2012.

Get used to those types of numbers here, Haveners.

photo credit: mkrigsman

What Railway Robbery Looks Like – Or yes, Bob O’Malley, This One’s For You

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Trust me, that’s how it happened.

Well, is anyone remotely surprised that Gernert and his Winter Haven Chamber cohorts showed no such concern about forcefully wading into a Lakeland city issue: where to locate the high speed rail stop. It’s a gratuitous bit of discord sewing, of course, at a time when we were making such superregional, ahem, progress. But general jerkiness aside, I kind of admire it. And I wish we could trade Chambers: At least Gernert and his boys do something. Their rapaciousness in the service of their city is admirable in its way.

Anyway, I digress. Actually I procrastinate. I’m trying to find a way not to say this, but, gulp, I agree with Bob — and Seth McKeel and the all powerful green and gold wizards.

A major new I-4 transportation corridor is a 100-year investment. We should think of it that way. It’s going to be a political and ridership disappointment in the short-term no matter where the stop goes. I still think it’s worth the investment over the long term, but until we get a carbon tax or reach peak oil and consistently see crushingly expensive gas, I do not foresee massive Lakeland-to-anywhere ridership on this thing. Happy to admit it if I’m wrong. (By the way, I’ll actually believe we’ll get any stop when I see it. I agree with Seth on that, too. DOT would love to rip this stop away. It doesn’t make a lot transportation sense. Fighting over it serves those who wish Lakeland ill. And you know who you are.)

So while I understand the argument for locating it where people currently are, at I-4 and 98, my own feeling is that placing the stop at the site of a university at the hub of a large potential development, potentially with large Orlampa-area enrollment, makes more sense for 2040. And that’s how I’m thinking. Also, accessible rail may encourage denser, less car intensive development around the new university — which I think is an important consideration.

I tend to doubt the fleet of USF-colored Legoland buses toting whining children back and forth to the rail stop will ever happen. But hey, I’ve been wrong before. When was that, by the way?

In any event, it’ll be fun to see if the Lakeland Chamber ever gets out of the fetal position on this.

photo credit: joelorama

Hey Bob, you’re right. Butt out anyway.

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The RoboBattle is a regional qualifying round in the FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology) Tech Challenge. Through the competition students learn to design and build robots with both “radio- and autonomous-controlled behavior using the TETRIX robotic design system.” The teams develop robots to meet a series of tasks defined in the competition, and them challenge teams on the way to a state championship.

“The FIRST Tech Challenge lets high-school students experience the fun and excitement of complex problem solving in a positive and supportive team environment. It also helps them discover the excitement and rewards of science, technology, and engineering.” — says Dr. Naomi Boyer, executive director of USFP’s Extended University.

This year’s competition will include 22 teams from Lakeland, Bartow, Winter Haven, Tampa, Largo, Orlando, Miami, Longwood, Weston and New Smyrna Beach, and Mt. Pleasant, S.C.

At 10 am USF Polytechnic CEO Marshall Goodman will open the competition. Competition rounds will take place from 10:15am until 3pm with a short lunch break. Goodman will lead the awards ceremony at 3 pm. There will be additional matches after the ceremony until 6pm.

photos from 2009 event credit: Tom Hagerty for Lakeland Local

Battle Over USFP

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Given Alexander’s obvious deep feeling for the common good of our state and soldiers and his solemn belief that the CSX/SunRail deal is so vital to both, I expect an announcement any day that he’s divesting his vast personal business interests in this deal. See them detailed here. Of course, it’s just a coincidence that the Winter Haven rail hub CSX will build as part of this deal with $23 million or so of your money will serve JD’s personal business interests and those of his partners. With a deal this important to our future, this important to our troops, I’m sure that JD will want to remove any taint that might surround it. That’s what a patriot does.

Be a patriot, JD: Divest from your CSX-related holdings

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A Blow to the Greene-ocracy

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And finally, I now think that if the freight realignment deal goes down, and CSX gets no public money for the hub, it won’t get built – at least for a number of years. I base that sense partly on some completely unreliable third-hand scuttlebut I’ve heard and partly on common sense. The stuff and vehicle-based economy that drove the push for this hub has crashed and faces long-term structural hurdles to returning to what it was in 2005. At the same time, Florida’s explosive population growth, which also drove the rationale for the hub, has halted.

I’m willing to put my – meager – money where my mouth is. Anybody who wants to bet a $1 on the fate of the hub if the realignment deal goes down, drop me a line.

[Emphasis mine]

Let’s mosey on over to Tom Palmer’s blog for a bit of news:

If the Sunrail legislation had passed, which included some state money to aid in the development of the Winter Haven freight terminal, the plan was to start construction and to have ther terminal open by 2011.

Now that the Sunrail legislation has failed, the groundbreaking for the center will be dictated by economic conditions, [CSX] said, explaining the railroad has been particularly hurt by slow down in deliveries of automobiles and and consumer goods, two items that would play a big part in the freight flow at the Winter Haven facility.

“The stuff and vehicle based economy” meets “deliveries of automobiles and consumer goods.” Man, that first idiot stumbled on something, didn’t he. Anyway, this is what you call an indefinite delay. Seems like fairly important news to me, but what do I know?

Tom sort of brushes it off, writing:

[CSX] confirmed what I had previously reported that the schedule (but nothing else) was tied to the outcome of the Sunrail vote.

I guess that’s true. But it’s a bit like saying the grass in my yard doesn’t depend on rain, it just needs it to grow.

Pay No Attention to That Indefinite Delay for Building the Hub

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Money paragraphs from City Manager Doug Thomas’ email:

We understand that you may have received information from individuals and/or organizations that have conveyed the erroneous impression that the City of Lakeland is opposed to the passage of Senate Bill 1212. Please be advised that the City of Lakeland has worked diligently throughout the 2009 Legislative Session with Senate Leadership, various Committee Chairs, Bill Sponsors and the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) to attain acceptable language in SB 1212 calling for: (A) the FDOT to undertake a Project Design and Environmental (PD&E) Study of various freight rail rerouting options arising from the FDOT District 1 Alternative Rail Study; and (B) that the preferred freight rail rerouting option from the PD&E Study, with a priority ranking from the Polk County Transportation Planning Organization, shall be programmed in the FDOT work program in a fiscal year no later than 10 years from commencement of construction of the CSX Winter Haven Integrated Logistics Center…

We trust this information clarifies any questions or impressions you may have regarding the City of Lakeland’s official position on this legislation, and please feel free to contact the office of either the Lakeland Mayor & City Commission or the City Manager in the event you have any related questions.

Leadership Lakeland must be so proud of its alums. However, it does seem a curious way for Commissioners Gow Fields and Jim Verplanck to approach their mayoral campaigns. I can imagine their speeches: “My fellow Lakelanders, you may be under the erroneous impression that you want a third candidate, perhaps one that is younger, better looking, and more energetic. We assure you that you do not. That’s our official position. You want us to make your decisions for you, in contravention of your input.” Feel those goosebumps?

This is all too silly for words, really. But I suppose I should bite briefly on the substance of the Lakeland language.

1) Lakeland only controls – at best – eight votes on the county’s Transportation Planning Organization, which is made up of elected officials across the county. Eight votes isn’t close to a majority. IMHO, there is no chance that TPO members – which include officials from Winter Haven and Auburndale – will vote to both impact themselves directly through rerouting or commit to massive funding of a project that would likely cause other projects to be delayed. I suspect that’s the reason the TPO language got inserted. The TPO won’t “priority rank” a $1 billion rerouting.

2) No one seems to have asked CSX if it would use any alternative route. I received no response from the company when I asked the press person. And Thomas told me via email that while the city hasn’t secured CSX’s cooperation, it would make perfect sense for it to play ball. Well, of course, if it would make sense, I’m sure CSX will do it out of general principle…

Back in the real world, once the Orlando deal goes through, and $600 million in cash and product is burning holes in CSX’s pockets, our wise commissioners have zero leverage to ask the company to do anything. So, we can get this study done, and TPO prioritization, and all that. But when CSX says no, future legislators will just strike the language from the statute. Lakeland who? “Official” Lakeland, that’s who.

Anyway, if you would like to annoy the commission further, email these two senators: (Larcenia Bullard) bullard.larcenia.web@flsenate.gov; (Sen. Pres. Jeff Atwater) atwater.jeff.web@flsenate.gov. Tell them that official is always temporary.

Lakeland Commission: Man, The People We (Ostensibly) Serve Are Annoying

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• Why Now?

First appointed to the City Commission in 1992, Gow Fields is running for Mayor during a time when many wouldn’t want to be in office. “We got some interesting challenges and opportunities before us as a community and a city. We’re at a very important juncture. I think the skills set and the capabilities that I bring to the table can be very helpful at this point and time. I have to make sure the voters have at least the chance to decide that. If you don’t offer yourself, then they can’t consider you.” said Fields.

In 2002, Fields publicly considered not running for reelection, “During that time there were quite a bit of things going on that I felt discouraged by people misunderstanding. What it was that I was trying to accomplish. And I spent too much time focusing on the negative comments people were making as opposed to the big picture of what was trying to be accomplished. After I got past what was being said, I got my eyes on what was needed to be done. It was an easy decision to make.”

Fields believes that too many critics of the City Commission develop their opinions without all the facts, “One of the things that makes public service difficult is a lot of times critics believe they have the same information set that the person who is there does. And what seems like a logical conclusion to them may not be so logical if they had the rest of the information that the actual person in the seat had in from of them as well. And then too, it doesnt mean that aren’t mistakes made, but when you have to make a decision right then, it cannot be put off until next year, next month. We all know more once another year goes by. It’s the old tale of the Monday morning quarterback.”

• On Information Flow

Fields acknowledges that he can’t give the public all the information he possesses, “If it was possible to give it all to the public, then we could conduct polls to see how the public feels about everything. We could do it instantaneously and it would be real easy to run government.“

However, Fields does state that many citizens don’t take the time needed to get the information that is available, “What I find interesting is, as much information that is on the city’s website, including if they want to sit through the entire meetings, or scroll to the portion they are interested in, there are far less of that than the people who take their snippets from the newspaper. They’re taking one reporter’s opinion as to what happened in the meeting as opposed to reading the minutes.”

With the state mandate to cut city revenue through lower property taxes, Fields says prioritizing city services will be a priority for the new Mayor and city commission, “We’ll have to look at how we deliver what the people ultimately say they want their local government to deliver. Does that mean that we do it as a public/private partnership? Does that mean that we not do it at all, and the private sector has to decide if there is a way for them to provide it? Or does that mean we do without it all together?”

How will Fields find out what the community wants? “One way we have attempted to do it through a public/private partnership is with Lakeland Vision. The county has attempted to do it with Polk Vision. And that is to give people the chance to tell us what is most important to them.”

Fields acknowledges he doesn’t hear from every member of the community, “Now do we have as many people participating in those efforts as we would like? No. We still have people that believe their opinion doesn’t count, so why give it? So we’ve got work to do there, making sure people understand that just because what you said did not result into legislation, doesn’t mean that it wasn’t considered.”

Fields emphasized that the public needs try to get information at the source, “The biggest thing I would want more people to pay attention to is that there is probably more to the story than you can get in a snippet. And if you would really like to know why someone took the position that they did, it’s easier to ask than it is to assume.”

• On Gen-Y

Fields has found the younger generation more than willing to participate in the process, “Some professional organizations have sprouted and are moving forward; some leadership programs that are reaching younger age individuals. I see a great deal of promise there.”

However, he wants to reach out to that population, “We need to make them feel they have a greater stake in the community. When we do that it helps us to retain and attract other very talented individuals to the employment base of this area as well.”

Fields observed that the younger community does gather information in ways others do not, “They really know how to stay on top of things. It’s amazing how clearly they see what the possible solutions are versus those that get their information from more traditional sources. That in itself has been amazing as an observer.”

• On CSX and Commuter Rail

Fields quickly states “We are the freight superhighway.” But he sees the rail as a solution, “It’s my belief that if we came up with another mode of transit using the rail lines going through the urban cores of the various cities and making it primarily for passenger use we can solve a number of problems. But that means that we have to come up with a freight rail corridor for the freight movements.”

“I’ve had people to tell me that I’ve sold out to Orlando, or that Orlando promised me something. Or that they promised us a bill of goods and we fell for it. I’ve had people to say we got weak at the knees and we folded to CSX. I’ve heard it all. None of those people have been with me in the heated discussions and the going toe-to-toe. They haven’t been there, but they can tell me exactly what I did,” he said.

Fields did emphasize where he thought some of the public had gone off-track, “One of the common things that I have seen repeatedly misstated in the newspaper and in people’s letters to the editor and blog comments. Federal legislation allows for Amtrak to use existing freight rail lines when there is capacity available. Amtrak can’t say to the owner of the rail line “I’m coming to at 8 o’clock, move all your freight trains off’ That’s been the common misperception. If CSX has no capacity and no time to put an Amtrak train on going from Lakeland to Tampa, then Amtrak can’t go.”

Fields stated he wants to move the freight corridor out of downtown Lakeland and Plant City. (Note, we spoke before the release of a report looking at the costs of alternate routes.) He did believe there were two better options, “The two (routes) that looked the most promising would actually require becoming a multi-use corridor where they would put it in the Van Fleet trail corridor and then it would become like other multi-use trails in the parts of the country where they have active trails with freight rail.” He added that the concept has worked in other places, “It’s not a new concept.”

Fields understands there is opposition to such a plan, but chalks it up to a lack of experience, “There are a lot of people here from other places that have been experiencing and seen a lot of these things. We don’t necessarily listen to them. And they talk in terms in possibilities, as opposed to thinking everything is bad before you get a chance to make it work.”

Fields points to figures that show in the 13 county I-4 corridor 95% of the jobs are within 5 miles of the Interstate or a toll road. He cites those figures for the need for a regional commutter rail, “If I got to wave a magic wand over this, what would the the state-wide solution be? A commuter rail type solution would be very effective. Where you could use the connections of the population centers to help people have another mode of transportation to get to and from work and to move within and between regions. And this has been part of our picture of the solution. And it doesn’t get much coverage.”

Fields stated he believes there is more than one path to the end. That he and others are all looking for the same goal: placing commuter rail throughout the region, “We need the result. I don’t have to be the one saying ‘I got it right.’ I just want the result.”

Many times Fields has stated it is better to work within a system. That’s as true today, “All of these things affecting us are forces outside the geographic footprint of Lakeland. The solution — so that we don’t get killed by it — is going to require us to work with people outside Lakeland to get it done,” he said.

Gow Fields Opens the Lakeland Mayoral Race

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Of course, Lakeland Local photographer Tom Hagerty has already attended a game. Here’s a few pics from Davenport University at Southeastern.

Created with Admarket’s flickrSLiDR.

Central Florida Invitational

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At the one I attended, Lakeland Vision brought together over 100 concerned residents to discuss Lakeland growth priorities. The Ledger described the other as supporting a study: “…called the Gateway Selected Area Study, is part of an effort to look at the expected growth impact of the planned CSX freight terminal in South Winter Haven and the expected spinoff industrial, commercial and residential development.”

In Lakeland, citizens expressed that the top growth priority should be before the development comes: “Growth will be well-planned and managed to ensure that public infrastructure investments can keep up with the needs of a growing population.”

At the other meeting, they were addressing the growth impact of the CSX rail yard. However, some government officials seemed a bit confused why they were conducting the study:

“This study has nothing to do with the CSX development; it’s a proactive approach to the issues of how do we move forward,” said Thado Hayes, the project manager for the county.

“We can put our heads in the sand and let all this development happen or we can get out in front of this stuff,” said Dave Dickey, Winter Haven’s community development director. –The Ledger

So, are they responding to the a fait accompli of the CSX rail yard, or not? Well, it’s obvious they’ve let an elephant into their backyard and now they’re looking how best to manage elephant poo.

The problems on Highway 60 will be great. The cost of improving the road to handle the CSX traffic will be great. Will the CSX contribution to the affected area be equal to or greater than the costs involved? I seriously doubt it.

The visioning process in Lakeland isn’t driven by responding, but by setting priorities before the growth comes. Watching 14 tables of Lakeland residents last night proved one thing: we do not agree exactly how best to grow this community. However, we’re darn close on how the process should work.

Let me repeat that top priority:

“Growth will be well-planned and managed to ensure that public infrastructure investments can keep up with the needs of a growing population.”

The simple way to do that: make sure your infrastructure can handle the new strain before you plop a new business or development into your community. You don’t approve a project with far-reaching consequences and then complain they’re coming and the citizens “need to get out in front of this stuff.”

We must always keep in mind that political expediency and business efficiency should not trump community livability. Most importantly, citizens must drive a visioning process and must hold elected officials to the plan.

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Thoughts on a Pair of Planning Meetings

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The first part of the equation is the rail hub in Winter Haven, with its location along the rail line that runs through downtown and its longterm plans for container and vehicle-shipping growth. Bill Rufty with The Ledger had a pretty good rundown of the tactical facts surrounding the state Department of Community Affairs’ decision to accept approval of the hub last week. And as I noted before, Kevin Sandridge, at the Florida Mortgage Blog, makes a good faith effort to understand the project and its implications. At his invitation, Chuck and I have commented over there.

While the hub approval is certainly bad for Lakeland, and sets the table for further bad things, it’s not end of the world in and of itself. Call it 20 percent of the problem. The other two parts of the problem are: the second phase of the ILC development, a 900-or-so acre business park; and the state deal that diverts freight trains from Orlando to a line running through west Florida and Lakeland, creating a single freight superhighway for CSX in order to allow for commuter rail in Orlando. The third part is what Paula Dockery and Dennis Ross successfully stopped in last year’s legislative session. I’ve described the entire threesome as state implementation of CSX’s Florida business plan.

I do want to take issue here with something Rufty wrote: Initially, the reports were that the planned Winter Haven rail facility and the commuter rail and indemnification deal were tied together, but CSX officials meeting with The Ledger editorial board earlier this year said the two are not now dependent on each other.

This is, of course, silly. The $500+ million deal to create the freight highway still includes $23 million for “relocation” of Orlando’s Taft Yard operations to the Winter Haven hub. I’ve never heard “relocation” defined. I doubt it’s for renting moving trucks. Instead, I’d be willing to bet it is synonymous with “construction.” Internal emails and documents from throughout this process make it clear CSX and the state consider these things related. I’ll be happy to provide them to anyone who cares to read them. Or you can just take my word for it. They’re related. Why do you think JD argued so forcefully on the floor of senate for the relocation deal?

It is true that CSX has said it will build the rail hub whether or not the Orlando relocation deal happens. But CSX has always maintained, to my knowledge, that Orlando cannot get commuter rail unless the company gets its hub. Please, if anyone can point to any evidence to the contrary, I’m happy to publish it.

Memo to Bill, who is good guy and not the regular Ledger reporter on this story: Just because CSX or FDOT tells you something does not make it true. If it helps their cause to say they’re related, they’ll say that. If it helps to say they’re unrelated, they’ll say that, too.

Ultimately, we don’t know how the remaining 80 percent of the problem will play out. We do know that if Paula Dockery not risked her political career – and some fierce citizens not risked ridicule and hard feelings – to fight the relocation deal last session, we’d be looking at 60 percent of the problem locked and loaded – and the worst 60 percent at that. We’d have no leverage at all and not even a sham rail corridor study to fall back on. The dream of a useful statewide rail system would be pushed further into the future.

As it is, I think events have somewhat overtaken all of this. As I wrote over on Kevin Sandridge’s Florida Mortgage Blog: “Much has changed since this deal was first announced. The most prominent thing is the economy. Supporters of this sold the benefits of this whole package based on 2004-2005 growth rates of vehicle sales and consumer product container traffic and Florida population. I saw the graphs and powerpoints. All of those things have cratered, and gas is plummeting. Who knows if this is a temporary thing, or if Florida really is “over” as the Wall Street Journal reported a while back? But it does seem to me that all of the economic assumptions underpinning this deal – and that goes for skeptics and impact-worriers like me, as well – are [somewhat] out the window.”

Predictions are something of a sucker’s game at this point.

Certainly, all indications are that the Orlando cabal will be back at it hard this year. And now JD has control of the state budget. On the other hand, the budget politics of this are absolutely putrid. What’s the opposite of bail out? What do you call it when you just hand a superprofitable company tax money? A bail-in? At a time when we have at least a $1.5 billion state budget deficit and the principals at my kids’ schools are telling horror stories of funding cuts. And oh yeah, they want us taxpayers to foot the liability for any crash CSX causes. If the dirty trial lawyers [offpsring of one, I can say that] continue to object to this liability arrangement, the deal has a good chance of flaming again.

You can tell how bad the political optics are on this simply by watching the People’s Governor, who is the perfect political weathervane. Everything I hear from people in and around this deal suggests Crist is fairly tight with CSX and very much wants to make this deal happen. And yet, he’s never been willing to stick his neck out for it politically. He knows how it plays when people actually pay attention to it.

At the same time, there’s a very real possibility that Congress and the Obama administration will pump major federal stimulus funding to the states for infrastructure and transit projects. And Joe Biden has a passion for Amtrak.

What does that mean for us? I have no idea. More variables. So keep watching, and don’t believe that everyone has thrown in the towel. The final 80 percent of this problem will live and die with the trial lawyers, budget politics, and how annoyed DCA is at having to swallow the Godawful development order for the hub. They may be just annoyed enough to make it awfully difficult to build on the remaining 900-acres after CSX gets what its hub and sells out.

photo credit: Chuck Welch for Lakeland Local

Where (I Think) The CSX/ILC Deal Stands

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I have Senator Dockery’s slideshow at the end of the live blogging post.

(Refresh this page to see updates) Update: The Powerpoint presentation is at the end of this post.

Note: You can see the presentation when the commission meeting is rebroadcast on the city cable channel. I’ll add the link and channel later today.

Senator Paula Dockery addresses the City Commissioners.

She first speaks of the cost of the project.

She said they are “not” relocating the Taft Rail yard, but are actually opening a new rail yard. (The ILC in Winter Haven.)

Her total: $1,491,000,000 taxpayer dollars to have commuter rail on 61.5 miles of CSX track. The company also wants to double track A line in Orlando to allow freight to run 24-hours a day.

She addresses that history of her work since May 2007 investigating the CSX and commuter rail issues.

Dennis Ross addresses the liability issue.

Dockery reads the liability language and explains some negotiation with CSX regarding the liability issue. (If CSX had accepted Dockery’s plan, would the deal have been finalized?)

Dockery doesn’t anticipate that there will be a special session on the CSX project.

Dockery ntroces information about the recently passed Federal law : HR 2095 Railroad Safety Enhancement Act.

Dockery says she believes the bill proves that Sen. Mica is wrong to say rail money will dry up if not spent this year.

Ross speaks of Amtrak and that company must charge no more than direct cost. That the rail company could also provide inner-city rail.

Dockery speaks of her work on a Fed committee this summer that addresses the issues. “Most of the activity on the Federal level.”

TriRail in South Florida still doesn’t have a dedicated funding source.

The ILC and the 9 million for the road is being paid by bonded dollars and other communities are not happy paying interest on those bonds.

She mentions she would have hoped the City of Winter Haven would have gotten together with the City of Lakeland.

She doesn’t see a spirit of cooperation from Winter Haven and Orlando.

Her chart shows the majority of the money for the project goes to freight needs — “a freight subsidy.”

She wants to know why they can’t split the project.

“On the s-line right now they can add 9 trains”

The improvements would allow 54 trains on the line.

If they can add 9 trains why do they need to upgrade the tracks for “only 4 more trains?”

We want a win-win situation for everybody.

Why pay 2005 prices in today’s market

Taxable value of the 61.5 milles is 22 million

CSX is in litigation with FDOR over 22 million taxable value. — CSX claims it is too much.

Ross says CSX will win, but the project needs to be made so everyone can win.

Dockery: “This is not a good deal for the taxpayers of the State of Florida.”

In 2002, TriRail had liability issues added as a small paragraph in a large bill. The language does not match what CSX wants for the proposed Central Florida project.

The only thing holding up this whole deal is they can not get the liability language they want through the legislature.

Doug Thomas, City Manager, said they will have a number in December to see how much it would cost to move the rail in lakeland.

Dockery says the Van Fleet Trail wouldn’t be a good path.

She says they don’t want to bother other communities to fix Lakeland’s problem.

City Attorney Tim McCausland speaks of the legal aspects of the current situation. “The where we are speech.”

Commissioner Howard Wiggs explains that “it seems to me we are not wasting taxpayers money” to

Dockery on ILC: “I think in my humble opinion the location is problematic.”

Dockery: We’re all smart enough people to know that once phase one was in there is no stopping phase two. (paraphrase)

Dockery: The only ridership study they have shows only 4500 passengers per day.

Re: Dockery’s poll: Less than 40% of the people in Orlando want the project.

Mayor Fletcher asks if the Orlando populace know what the project will cost them in seven years.

By law: The state can take that track.

I blame the FDOT for spending Florida taxpayer dollars without legislative oversight.(paraphrase)

Wiggs: On what the city has actually asked for.

Wiggs: It’s a good expenditure of money statewide.

Dockery: Discusses the current communication with Orlando

Dockery: The real story here is that FDOT needs serious reform.

“They’re planning another deal just like this.” (FDOT)

Ross: The 2006 Vision plan didn’t discuss commuter rail.

Commissioner Gow Fields: We’ve always been told in private meetings this was about moving freight.

Fields speaks the fight. Do we help the state come up with a plan to connect city centers.

Or does the city of Lakeland keep fighting Winter Haven?

Dockery: The combination of the improvements to the S-Line and the ILC that is causing the problems in Lakeland.

Dockery cautions that it doesn’t make sense to take the frieght traffic west of Lakeland and than bring it back east through Lakeland into Winter Haven.

The two communities getting hit the hardest are Lakeland and Plant City and why were neither of those cities brought to the table?

Fields: Thinks that Lakeland should be arguing with Tallhassee (FDOT) and not Winter Haven.

Fields on Winter Haven: They were included in the secrecy of the deal and they didn’t bother telling anyone else.

Dockery is not sure CSX would do the ILC project and related issues if the state doesn’t give them the money.

Ross: We are now being pitted against a local community when the problem resides with FDOT.

Dockery: thinks that they may get more allies from the panhandle area.

Wiggs: Our battle should not be with Winter Haven.

Wiggs: We have an obligation to protect Lakeland folks first.

Wiggs: I dont want to any harm to a fellow city.

Wiggs: states that those who claim the commissioners are wasting money fighting the project are not correct in their assessment.

Dockery: No one is helping Lakeland with dollars while Winter Haven is getting help from CSX.

Troller: There are people involved with this deal who don’t have best interests of the citizens in heart.

Fields: I don’t appreciate the insinuation to the public that there is only one way to go against the project.

Fields: We have a problem right now. We’re not going to become the Freight Superhighway of Florida, We are the freight superhighway of Florida.

Dockery: My first inclination is not to fight but to reach consesnus.

What are others willing to do?

Fields: A letter of support from the Central Florida partnership.

Fields: Addresses the Winter Haven Chamber Letter of Support to moving traffic.

Any definitive action? Dockery asks.

I’ve requested a copy of Senator Dockery’s presentation and will append it when I receive it.

Here it is:

Live Blogging Paula Dockery’s Address to the City Commissioners

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I got busy last week, so this is a little dated now. But I want to take a moment to revisit Politics-in-the-Park-gate. You may remember, that’s when the crack triumvirate of Tom Palmer, Bob Gernert, and shadowy counterterroism forces within the city of Lakeland’s security apparatus conjured, denounced, and successfully intervened with their imaginations to halt the mortal threat to Charlie Crist’s comfort posed by a blog post I spent 15 minutes writing the night before. A bunch of Jack Bauers, they are.

Background here. There clearly was no plan – other than my meek exhortation – to confront the governor with CSX questions or chanting. (Though I’m told Crist’s FDLE security detail was made aware of the threat and presumably briefed the governor on it. So thanks for that, Tom, Bob, and whoever else. The more the People’s governor associates CSX with controversy and political intensity, the happier I’ll be. The People’s governor is not known for his political bravery. Ask Orlando.)

But what if there was a plan? What if some portion of P in P goers had chanted CSX so that Charlie could hear them or shouted questions since he wasn’t taking them in person, from what I understand. (I wasn’t there when he spoke.)

Over on his Winter Haven Chamber blog, Bob Gernert said such a thing would amount to an “ambush” of the governor. And that would be bad form, I guess.

But wait just a second. Who pays the People’s Governor’s salary? I thought he worked for us. This was an explicitly political rally, wasn’t it? Crist was there, explicitly, to ask us to vote for John McCain. Does this transaction only flow in one direction? We can’t ask him something in return? That’s an ambush? It might hurt his feelings, and that might…..? Whaaaaaa?

Look, I understand that those of you in David Greene-world have grown accustomed to thinking of your local government and business officials as kings and regents. If that’s working for you, fine. I don’t have to live there. But for many of us outside that world, politics in a representative democracy remains the non-violent interaction of divergent interests, with the power to resolve disagreements vested in the people. The bedrock, the absolute prerequisite of representative democracy, is the ability to confront your leaders non-violently. I can’t believe I have to write this.

What’s funny is that Bob even seems to acknowledge the importance of this concept, while simultaneously denouncing it.

He notes the “measurable tension” with “our neighbors to the west.” (I’m not sure which tool he used to measure it, but…) And then goes on to trumpet “One Polk,” a sort of protean countwide-unity-of-our-betters organization designed to meet, apparently.

But here’s the key phrase of Gernert’s post:

The point here is that much good has come from confrontation. Calmer heads have prevailed and reasoned thought has emerged to find solutions and build consensus.

Three quick thoughts:

1) I would suggest that a lot of “reasoned thought” and solution seeking went into the conditions required by the Central Florida Regional Planning Council, which Winter Haven officials promptly watered down, as everyone predicted. Not doing that would have been a good way to “build consensus”. But ces’t la vie.

2) If Bob Gernert and Winter Haven’s business and government elite had had their way, there would have been no confrontation and thus no supposed good. Remember, they were dragged kicking and screaming into the development of regional impact review that they promptly ignored.

3) Show me a single concrete action taken by the state, CSX, or the city of Winter Haven demonstrating helpful consensus on this matter, and I’ll be happy to publicize it. And no, a state study which will show we can’t reroute freight traffic away from Lakeland because CSX won’t do it and there’s not enough money does not count.

But on Bob’s larger point, I do agree.

Much good comes from vigorous, good-faith confrontation. In fact, democracy does not function without it. In this CSX case, confrontation made the problems of the deal plain. If any mitigation emerges, it won’t be because of Bob Gernert and those who sought consensus and warm snuggles with altruistic CSX and continue to dismiss opponents as wacky. It will come because citizens, those lowly non-elected, non-powerful irritants in whom our forefathers vested power, decided to confront their leaders. And made them blink. For at least a few months.

And consider this question: Does anyone really think the problems of the last few years in this country stem from too much confrontation with our supposed national business and civic leaders? Are we paying to recapitalize banks and fund ongoing foreign occupations because we lowly citizens were too impolite?

photo credit: Cathalain Carter

In Defense Of Confrontation – And Democracy

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I don’t see mention anywhere which two.

Yes, that’s an Orlando Colonial Bank.

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Closing a Colonial Bank Branch

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$5 Fridays at Cypress Gardens

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The Gainesville Sun and Ocala Star-Banner will merge news operations, according to an announcement by executives of both papers Monday. News and copy desk functions, design, layout and pagination for the two papers will be done in Gainesville.

That was the whole article. I can’t understand how I missed it. It was published in prime time: Tuesday at 11:15 pm. They dropped it in between Florida, Michigan Delegates Forgiven With Prime Seating At Convenion(sic) and Man Charged With Assault Over Butter. I don’t remember seeing one of those cute “BREAKING NEWS” tags most often used when Brittney stubs her toe.

The Ledger story omits some important details. Most importantly that both the Sun and the Star-Banner are owned by the New York Times Company. The same group that owns the Ledger and the News Chief. I can’t understand why the NY Times Company didn’t supply the Ledger reporter with a few more details. You would think the New York Times Company would throw a bone to their compadres.

At least the Ledger published the story about 90 minutes before the Herald-Tribune, another NY Times Company newspaper, published their version. The Herald-Tribune did announce the papers were owned by the NY Times Company, and some other details.

If it makes sense to combine staff from towns about 40 miles apart, why not combine staff from two papers less than half that distance apart? It would be a logical step toward dropping the recently purchased News Chief.

We must now ask the accountants at the Ledger and the honchos at the News Chief: How long before we hear the same news from your offices?

(Update: Tom “Hyphen Hunter” Hagerty pointed out the the Winter Haven paper doesn’t include a hyphen. I’ve removed the hyphen in this article, but I’d like to mention that the NewsChief.com site uses a hyphen for the page titles: NewsChief.com | News-Chief | Winter Haven, FL )

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Why Not the News Chief & The Ledger?

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