I clearly don’t know the back story to any of the most recent negotiations – or whatever they are. But the letters to Sunrail backers from the Federal Transit Authority and from CSX discussing the new developments are chock full of nothing. They commit to nothing and really hint at nothing.

Take a look for yourselves on the extended entry:

Some schlub wrote this not long ago:

In this economy, CSX will not lightly walk away from more than $600 million in cash and system improvements, liability or no.

A commenter expressed some skepticism and asked what I based that on. Oh, well, just a hunch.

From The Orlando Sentinel:

Last week, in a development first reported by the Orlando Sentinel, Dyer, Mica and others negotiated an extension to a proposed contract with CSX, the Jacksonville train company that owns the tracks that SunRail would use.

You may have seen this story Thursday in The Ledger: CSX Battle Drained State of $44 million Quite a chunk of change. I’ll let Joe Follick’s story discuss the merits of spending that money in advance of a big project. I’m more interested in who you and I paid to do what over the last few…

In this economy, CSX will not lightly walk away from more than $600 million in cash and system improvements, liability or no. FDOT probably still wants to hand that money over to the company. In fact, it’s already done so to some degree in the form of ongoing overpass improvements in north central Florida. Buddy Dyer is out begging for $20,000 in legal expense money so lawyers can try to figure out a way around the senate. Democracy in action. (Funny that with all the money spent on John Thrasher and other uber lobbyists during the session, Dyer is reduced to panhandling for this. You would think GrayRobinson would just pick it up for him.) Anyway, this isn’t over. But it’s worth taking a moment for some post mortem thoughts before this deal reveals itself as the undead zombie vampire that we fear it might be.

Hey, you remember when some schmuck wrote this?:

And finally, I now think that if the freight realignment deal goes down, and CSX gets no public money for the hub, it won’t get built – at least for a number of years. I base that sense partly on some completely unreliable third-hand scuttlebut I’ve heard and partly on common sense. The stuff and vehicle-based economy that drove the push for this hub has crashed and faces long-term structural hurdles to returning to what it was in 2005. At the same time, Florida’s explosive population growth, which also drove the rationale for the hub, has halted.

I’m willing to put my – meager – money where my mouth is. Anybody who wants to bet a $1 on the fate of the hub if the realignment deal goes down, drop me a line.

[Emphasis mine]

Let’s mosey on over to Tom Palmer’s blog for a bit of news:

The CSX deal absorbed a giant defeat on the floor of the Florida Senate this evening. See story here. How big? Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer declared: “The forces of evil have won.”

Now, this isn’t done. There’s one more day. Anything can happen. But just think about that line from Dyer for a second. “The forces of evil.” Really? Dude, it’s single crappy rail line made possible by a massive, destructive corporate giveaway to CSX. We are not talking about waterboarding here. Get a grip.

In the latest effort to ensure it still gets invited to all the good regional cocktail parties if and when the CSX deal goes splat, our Lakeland City Commission – excluding Justin Troller and Howard Wiggs – has sent a blanket email – with DOT-fawning letter attached – urging Florida senators to ignore any silly citizen emails or other contact expressing opposition from anyone not “official”.

It’s a big day for the CSX deal, though today’s hearing won’t settle the issue either way. It’s probably more vital for the supporters than opponents. But one way or another, this battle will unfold right up until they drop the hankie to end the session. Win or lose, though, neutral observers and even formerly harsh critics are finally giving Sen. Paula Dockery her due for the courageous and skillful fight she’s waged on behalf of the people of the city and state she represents.

The St. Pete Times “Buzz” political blog named her “Winner of the Week” last week. And yesterday, in a remarkable column titled “Sunrail foe kicking our butts,” Orlando Sentinel writer Mike Thomas praised Dockery’s game – and thumped his own editorial page – while reiterating his support for the deal. You may remember Thomas as the guy who wrote last year that “Our Dan Webster can beat up their Paula Dockery.”

This is all CSX, Jacob Stuart, Buddy Dyer, and the rest of the Orlando cabal need.

Their pet freight deal is already teetering on the edge of collapse, and now the Lakeland Chamber has decided, for some reason, to pick this particular moment to urgently back CSX and literally beg its members to pepper legislators with expressions of support. Well, you know what that means: Break out the champagne, my fellow deal opponents. If you’ve lived here for a while, you know that every Lakeland political imbroglio has its Chamber stage, the point at which the Chamber rushes in on the losing side….

On Friday, the Orlando Sentinel’s impeccably fair Dan Tracy (no snark intended) wrote a good state-of-play story on the CSX deal. I’d quibble with a couple of things in the story, but they’re not worth going into here. Overall, it’s quite well-reported, and the conclusions are sound. Bottom line: The deal is in trouble, and the Orlando big guys know it.

“It’s not a sure bet that we are going to [succeed],” Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer acknowledged. “It’s still more likely than not, but I wouldn’t say it’s 100 percent.”

No one could have predicted this would happen.

As the Orlando Sentinel reports, Sen. Mike Fasano, R-New Port Richey, says his Transportation and Economic Development Committee will not hear the CSX freight realignment bill until language addressing Lakeland is either killed or gutted further from its already rather acute state of meaninglessness.

Following last week’s Senate Judiciary Committee meeting, Lakeland-specific rerouting language now exists in both the House and Senate bills authorizing the CSX deal. But the Senate language is far less sweeping in its time frames and goals than the House language. Even so, Lakeland City Manager Doug Thomas told me via email, that the watered down Senate language is good enough, and the city is “…’positioned’ to support the initiative w/ approval of the subject amendments legislatively.” Obviously, that statement leaves a lot of ambiguity, probably because uncertainty continues to surround what’s going to happen. Issue number one is that a key senator, Mike Fasano, R-New Port Richey, says even the watered down Senate version will be DOA in his committe next week.

On the extended entry, I’ve provided a side-by-side comparison of the House and Senate language. Come take a look. And I’ll game out the likely scenarios as I see them.

Hee Hee. The Orlando Sentinel’s version of the Polk Pulse has produced more than 12,000 online votes concerning the CSX deal/Sunrail plan.

As of this writing, 83 percent oppose. Unscientific? Absolutely. Manipulated by opponents? Perhaps, though supporters could manipulate it just as easily. Amusing? Yes.

More interestingly, and predictably, the entire Sentinel has managed to ignore the St. Pete Times story on Rep. Steve Precourt’s big money made off the commuter rail portion of the deal. (I’ve google and site searched for Precourt references. If I’ve missed one, let me know and I’ll correct.)

I guess you mostly have to feel sorry for Lakeland city government officials, who apparently have worked hard behind the scenes with Florida’s Department of Transportation and Orlando-area legislators to get language calling, without qualification, for the elimination of CSX deal freight traffic within 8 years into the legislation authorizing the deal. The only way to eliminate such traffic, short of a magic wand, is to reroute it out of the downtown core. This would have benefits for Tampa Bay by moving some freight off of the east-west line linking Tampa and Orlando through Lakeland. City officials, as I understand it, have been counting on regional help from Bay area power players to cut a deal to this effect.

Put aside for a second whether such statuatory language would have any meaning – I don’t think it would -and just consider the question of including it and mandating a rerouting around Lakeland’s core. On that question, the city suffered two big setbacks in recent days.

I hereby propose a new rule for the U.S. House of Representatives: If you belong to the party that brought us the Iraq War and the Medicare Pharmaceutical Giveaway/Drug Benefit while cutting taxes for the rich, and you cast a petulant, nihilistic vote against the stimulus package designed to head off the economic – and perhaps social – collapse your party set in motion, you don’t get to angle for some of that stimulus money to use for your pet CSX freight dump/corporate giveaway.

That is all.

You may have heard that Gov. Charlie Crist, R-CSX, will introduce President Obama during today’s stimulus pep rally in Fort Myers. “I am eager to welcome President Obama to the Sunshine State as he continues to work hard to reignite the U.S. economy,” Crist said in a statement. Good for him.

The CSX deal may or may not come up. But clearly, the Orlando cabal and Crist are selling it now as badly needed stimulus for the ailing Florida economy. It’s their best argument. Clearly, as you can tell from my giant post at Metro I-4 News yesterday, I’m a stimulus proponent. So this argument makes me sigh and think self-importantly of Kipling’s line: “If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools.”

WrongTrack4Florida.com, a site concerned with the CSX ILC/Orlando Commuter Rail Project, debuted with a bang recently. Lakeland Local has a short interview with the site’s publisher, Rosemary Goudreau…