Bill Rufty had an interesting column on his blog yesterday.
The race for Lakeland City Commission is supposed to be nonpartisan; that means political party doesn’t count, but boy howdy does it count this time. — Rufty
I took another look at the election result numbers I wrote about last week. This time I focused on the registered party numbers for those precincts that lie entirely in the city.
• There are 19 precincts that lie only in the city. Nine have more registered Democrats. Ten have more registered Republicans.
• Of those 19 precincts, Dockery won four, Wade one, and Troller the remaining 14.
• Of the 10 “Republican” precincts, Dockery won three and Troller seven.
• Of the 9 “Democratic” precincts, Troller won seven, Wade one, and Dockery one.
• There are four precincts where there are more registered “Other” and “Unknown” than there are registered Republicans.
• If voters in those 19 precincts voted by party lines there are 2152 registered Democrats, 904 registered Republicans, and 2106 “Other and Unknown”
• Wade threw his support behind Dockery. If you combined their votes Dockery would have won the election 4245 to Troller’s 3211.
• Looking at the full 33 precincts though Troller out polled the combination of Dockery and Wade in 11 precincts.
• In the precincts skewing Democrat, there was an average 12.80% voter turnout. In the precincts skewing Republican, there was an average 18.08% voter turn out.
• Dockery got 50% of his vote in his top eight precincts. Troller in his top 10. Seven of Dockery’s top eight precincts were in Troller’s top 10.
What do these numbers and those from last week mean?
There are two “of course” statements:
• Troller and Dockery need to get their loyal voters to vote again.
• It’s not a lock that wade voters will vote for Dockery.
And one “You think?”
• Dockery’s best three precincts were in the top five precincts by percentage turnout with 24.60% of his votes coming from those three precincts. He’ll have to make sure those precincts again get out the vote or he could slip. Troller received 19.31% of his votes from those same precincts.
And three “Huh?”
• If the candidates hit the streets again, the precincts you’ll see the most walking will be the 224, 235, and the 236.
• Troller will leave the 223 and 221 to Dockery.
• Dockery will leave 230 to Troller.
Of course, you don’t win this election by winning precincts. Each vote in the city counts the same Still, each candidate has a finite amount of time and resources. So the two will concentrate on where they’ll get the best return on investment.